For better times

Life is not only about money. And while this blog has its focus on it, today I’d like to share a poem that moved quite some people on the inauguration day of the 46th President of the United States.

“The Hill We Climb”
Amanda Gorman

When day comes we ask ourselves, where can we find light in this never-ending shade? The loss we carry, a sea we must wade. We’ve braved the belly of the beast, we’ve learned that quiet isn’t always peace and the norms and notions of what just is, isn’t always justice. And yet the dawn is ours before we knew it, somehow we do it, somehow we’ve weathered and witnessed a nation that isn’t broken but simply unfinished.

We, the successors of a country and a time where a skinny black girl descended from slaves and raised by a single mother can dream of becoming president only to find herself reciting for one. And, yes, we are far from polished, far from pristine, but that doesn’t mean we are striving to form a union that is perfect, we are striving to forge a union with purpose, to compose a country committed to all cultures, colors, characters and conditions of man.

So we lift our gazes not to what stands between us, but what stands before us. We close the divide because we know to put our future first, we must first put our differences aside. We lay down our arms so we can reach out our arms to one another, we seek harm to none and harmony for all.

Let the globe, if nothing else, say this is true: that even as we grieved, we grew, even as we hurt, we hoped, that even as we tired, we tried, that we’ll forever be tied together victorious, not because we will never again know defeat but because we will never again sow division.

Scripture tells us to envision that everyone shall sit under their own vine and fig tree and no one should make them afraid. If we’re to live up to our own time, then victory won’t lie in the blade, but in in all of the bridges we’ve made.

That is the promise to glade, the hill we climb if only we dare it because being American is more than a pride we inherit, it’s the past we step into and how we repair it. We’ve seen a force that would shatter our nation rather than share it. That would destroy our country if it meant delaying democracy, and this effort very nearly succeeded. But while democracy can periodically be delayed, but it can never be permanently defeated.

In this truth, in this faith, we trust, for while we have our eyes on the future, history has its eyes on us, this is the era of just redemption we feared in its inception we did not feel prepared to be the heirs of such a terrifying hour but within it we found the power to author a new chapter, to offer hope and laughter to ourselves, so while once we asked how can we possibly prevail over catastrophe, now we assert how could catastrophe possibly prevail over us.

We will not march back to what was but move to what shall be, a country that is bruised but whole, benevolent but bold, fierce and free, we will not be turned around or interrupted by intimidation because we know our inaction and inertia will be the inheritance of the next generation, our blunders become their burden. But one thing is certain: if we merge mercy with might and might with right, then love becomes our legacy and change our children’s birthright.

So let us leave behind a country better than the one we were left, with every breath from my bronze, pounded chest, we will raise this wounded world into a wondrous one, we will rise from the golden hills of the West, we will rise from the windswept Northeast where our forefathers first realized revolution, we will rise from the lake-rimmed cities of the Midwestern states, we will rise from the sunbaked South, we will rebuild, reconcile, and recover in every known nook of our nation in every corner called our country our people diverse and beautiful will emerge battered and beautiful, when the day comes we step out of the shade aflame and unafraid, the new dawn blooms as we free it, for there is always light if only we’re brave enough to see it, if only we’re brave enough to be it.

Let it sink

I won’t comment too much on it. It’s beautiful.

Bye Mr. Trump. Bye, to the rest of the Trump family.
The world is moving on.

Investing in Thailand – BDMS.BK

January is already proving to be a challenging month, with COVID still in full expansion mode. This means that we still follow all the protective measures and restrictions which have been put in place to protect the public, including full or partial lockdowns, travel restrictions, mask mandates etc.

Thailand managed the outbreak pretty well so far, but in the last 3 weeks, things also escalated here a little bit with lots of new infections and putting public life once again under pressure.

But every crisis can also be an opportunity, and as promised, I’d like to present one such potential opportunity in the investment world of Thailand on my blog.

The leader in medical services in Thailand

Things need to get worse before they can better, and for investors with some cash on hand, this is a good time to look for undervalued companies that will either recover after the crisis or which might even profit further from it. And one such company is Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS.BK).

You can find more information and investor relations for BDMS right HERE. The company operates hospitals, clinics, and other medical facilities, including the production of pharmaceuticals. The “About Us” section of BDMS describes the company as follows:

“Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS) is one of the most prestigious hospital networks in the Asia-Pacific region, with 26 hospitals and/or clinical programs out of a total of 48 hospitals across the BDMS network that have been accredited by the Joint Commission International (JCI). We are ranked in the top five private hospital groups globally in terms of Market Capitalization. BDMS offers world-class medical care and treatment to both local and international patients, complemented by the latest medical technology. Our team of qualified doctors and nurses consists of specialists in every field. These health professionals have received training from top medical schools around the world, and they are passionate about providing only top-tier health services to every patient.

I can confirm that the company has not just the reputation of being the best in Thailand, they are the best. I am living in Thailand for almost 10 years now, and I can confirm that whenever I get sick, I wouldn’t consider any other hospital than a BDMS operated hospital or clinic. And it’s the same for every single expat here that I know.

They are modern, clean, the staff is professional, the service amazing, and while they are more expensive than other medical facilities in Thailand, the value is still reasonable. Especially if you have insurance.

The Stock

The stock suffered during the crisis as you can see on the chart, but it’s already on track to recover and I expect it to thrive once the vaccinations across the country begin to take place, probably around March and April this year.

While the hospital will certainly benefit as one of the main distributors for future vaccinations, its business is currently also affected by consumer sentiment, and the lack of medical tourism, which is a very strong contributor to the companies top-line. People from all over the world are coming to Thailand to undergo essential and non-essential treatments, thus the current travel restrictions are a serious drag on the companies revenues. Once the restrictions are lifted, the stock should continue its recovery and get back to a level of around 24 THB, thus implicating a 12% upside on this factor alone.

BDMS is also a dividend payer, with the dividends usually being distributed twice a year in April and in September. In 2020 however, there was only one payment. The last dividend came in at 0,25 THB per share, so the yield was not impressive, and overall the dividend history is not showing any real care for dividend-growth or even small growth consistency.

Stability for your depot and long-term benefits

Overall I regard this stock as a good, but not very exciting opportunity. It’s a solid company with good long-term potential and a boring dividend. But boring is good. Long-term potential sounds great to me. And as it’s slowly making its way back up, for me it definitely is one of those SWAN (sleep well at night) stocks that puts stability and trust in my portfolio.

DISCLOSURE: I am managing a portfolio which owns BDMS.

The first one for 2021

Finally. 2020 is gone and 2021 has begun. And the start couldn’t be more promising. A little rough, and it’s also affecting me and my journey, but promising nevertheless.

Let’s start with the biggest drama, the virus. COVID is not gone. In fact, it seems to get worse, but it’s not that we wouldn’t have expected that. Most of us make a big deal every year at the end of each and every year about things coming to an end, starting new, new year’s resolutions. But in reality, the next day after the 31st of December is just that. Another day. Another sunrise. Nothing more than another shift in the tides of time. So why should have anything changed in comparison with the day prior to January 1st, 2021?

Correct. Nothing changed. COVID is still spreading and to top it off, there seems to be a slightly mutated version of the virus going around. Spreading faster, it seems to be more difficult to track and isolate.

Japan has declared a state of emergency, China is once again shutting down regions, towns, and cities, and even Thailand came back into a de facto lockdown. The authorities are very cautious in not calling it a lockdown, but the measures in place include massive restrictions on travel, business, and semi-curfews. So I guess using the term “lockdown” is debatable, but certainly not too far off.

And of course the big elephant in the room. The US is in its final days of getting rid of Donald Trump. There is no question that he is leaving a legacy, but in my wildest dreams (or should I say nightmares) I wouldn’t have thought to watch the news and to see what is unfolding in the “oldest democracy in the world”. Shocking. But not surprising. I mean seriously folks. Electing a real-estate shark for president, what would you expect? And it’s not just any real estate guy. It’s one of the worst that ever walked the globe.

Trading the future

Having said all that, expectations are positive. We all know, things need to get worse before they can get better, and the way I see it, we are about to reach the peak of the crisis.

Infections are on the rise, but so are vaccines. Several types of vaccinations are being distributed and administered across the globe, and the ramp-up will only get faster from here. We know there is a life after COVID, and it’s clearly visible on the horizon.

MAGA supporters had a short uprising, but it seems they had not enough support, no real plan, and they were badly organized. So this ended rather quickly. The way I see it, all they did was to bring the Republican party on the brink of collapse. This brings not only a definitive end to Trump and his presidency but potentially also to any other political aspirations anyone in the Trump family might have (had).

So, we see all this happening, and we know that the future will be better. Therefore stocks are rising, and investors are preparing for a bright and profitable second half of 2021. And so am I.

Happy New Year everyone.