For better times

Life is not only about money. And while this blog has its focus on it, today I’d like to share a poem that moved quite some people on the inauguration day of the 46th President of the United States.

“The Hill We Climb”
Amanda Gorman

When day comes we ask ourselves, where can we find light in this never-ending shade? The loss we carry, a sea we must wade. We’ve braved the belly of the beast, we’ve learned that quiet isn’t always peace and the norms and notions of what just is, isn’t always justice. And yet the dawn is ours before we knew it, somehow we do it, somehow we’ve weathered and witnessed a nation that isn’t broken but simply unfinished.

We, the successors of a country and a time where a skinny black girl descended from slaves and raised by a single mother can dream of becoming president only to find herself reciting for one. And, yes, we are far from polished, far from pristine, but that doesn’t mean we are striving to form a union that is perfect, we are striving to forge a union with purpose, to compose a country committed to all cultures, colors, characters and conditions of man.

So we lift our gazes not to what stands between us, but what stands before us. We close the divide because we know to put our future first, we must first put our differences aside. We lay down our arms so we can reach out our arms to one another, we seek harm to none and harmony for all.

Let the globe, if nothing else, say this is true: that even as we grieved, we grew, even as we hurt, we hoped, that even as we tired, we tried, that we’ll forever be tied together victorious, not because we will never again know defeat but because we will never again sow division.

Scripture tells us to envision that everyone shall sit under their own vine and fig tree and no one should make them afraid. If we’re to live up to our own time, then victory won’t lie in the blade, but in in all of the bridges we’ve made.

That is the promise to glade, the hill we climb if only we dare it because being American is more than a pride we inherit, it’s the past we step into and how we repair it. We’ve seen a force that would shatter our nation rather than share it. That would destroy our country if it meant delaying democracy, and this effort very nearly succeeded. But while democracy can periodically be delayed, but it can never be permanently defeated.

In this truth, in this faith, we trust, for while we have our eyes on the future, history has its eyes on us, this is the era of just redemption we feared in its inception we did not feel prepared to be the heirs of such a terrifying hour but within it we found the power to author a new chapter, to offer hope and laughter to ourselves, so while once we asked how can we possibly prevail over catastrophe, now we assert how could catastrophe possibly prevail over us.

We will not march back to what was but move to what shall be, a country that is bruised but whole, benevolent but bold, fierce and free, we will not be turned around or interrupted by intimidation because we know our inaction and inertia will be the inheritance of the next generation, our blunders become their burden. But one thing is certain: if we merge mercy with might and might with right, then love becomes our legacy and change our children’s birthright.

So let us leave behind a country better than the one we were left, with every breath from my bronze, pounded chest, we will raise this wounded world into a wondrous one, we will rise from the golden hills of the West, we will rise from the windswept Northeast where our forefathers first realized revolution, we will rise from the lake-rimmed cities of the Midwestern states, we will rise from the sunbaked South, we will rebuild, reconcile, and recover in every known nook of our nation in every corner called our country our people diverse and beautiful will emerge battered and beautiful, when the day comes we step out of the shade aflame and unafraid, the new dawn blooms as we free it, for there is always light if only we’re brave enough to see it, if only we’re brave enough to be it.

Let it sink

I won’t comment too much on it. It’s beautiful.

Bye Mr. Trump. Bye, to the rest of the Trump family.
The world is moving on.

The first one for 2021

Finally. 2020 is gone and 2021 has begun. And the start couldn’t be more promising. A little rough, and it’s also affecting me and my journey, but promising nevertheless.

Let’s start with the biggest drama, the virus. COVID is not gone. In fact, it seems to get worse, but it’s not that we wouldn’t have expected that. Most of us make a big deal every year at the end of each and every year about things coming to an end, starting new, new year’s resolutions. But in reality, the next day after the 31st of December is just that. Another day. Another sunrise. Nothing more than another shift in the tides of time. So why should have anything changed in comparison with the day prior to January 1st, 2021?

Correct. Nothing changed. COVID is still spreading and to top it off, there seems to be a slightly mutated version of the virus going around. Spreading faster, it seems to be more difficult to track and isolate.

Japan has declared a state of emergency, China is once again shutting down regions, towns, and cities, and even Thailand came back into a de facto lockdown. The authorities are very cautious in not calling it a lockdown, but the measures in place include massive restrictions on travel, business, and semi-curfews. So I guess using the term “lockdown” is debatable, but certainly not too far off.

And of course the big elephant in the room. The US is in its final days of getting rid of Donald Trump. There is no question that he is leaving a legacy, but in my wildest dreams (or should I say nightmares) I wouldn’t have thought to watch the news and to see what is unfolding in the “oldest democracy in the world”. Shocking. But not surprising. I mean seriously folks. Electing a real-estate shark for president, what would you expect? And it’s not just any real estate guy. It’s one of the worst that ever walked the globe.

Trading the future

Having said all that, expectations are positive. We all know, things need to get worse before they can get better, and the way I see it, we are about to reach the peak of the crisis.

Infections are on the rise, but so are vaccines. Several types of vaccinations are being distributed and administered across the globe, and the ramp-up will only get faster from here. We know there is a life after COVID, and it’s clearly visible on the horizon.

MAGA supporters had a short uprising, but it seems they had not enough support, no real plan, and they were badly organized. So this ended rather quickly. The way I see it, all they did was to bring the Republican party on the brink of collapse. This brings not only a definitive end to Trump and his presidency but potentially also to any other political aspirations anyone in the Trump family might have (had).

So, we see all this happening, and we know that the future will be better. Therefore stocks are rising, and investors are preparing for a bright and profitable second half of 2021. And so am I.

Happy New Year everyone.

Will stocks crash if Biden wins?

The presidential election in the US is just around the corner. November is only 3 weeks away. And while early voting has already started in the largest economy in the world, markets around the globe are in full speculation on who might win and how this could effects stocks. The loudest faction is of course the one that is stronger invested. The Republicans. And their argument is the same every four years: If the Democrats win, the economy and stocks will suffer.

Of course we cannot predict the future, but if the past is any lesson, then it’s safe to assume that the comments shared by Republicans are at least misleading, and this is easy to proof. Let’s look at the economies of the last presidents in the US:

Blue stands obviously for Democrats, and red for Republicans. The full article can be found HERE with my thanks to Fortune.com

These numbers give a very clear indication on what kind of leadership inspires growth and success. And it’s not a Republican leadership. Looking at these facts as an investor I certainly support the Biden campaign to emerge victorious, to help the US economy to get back on track, and I don’t worry about my portfolio if Biden gets his turn. If anything, I expect things to improve significantly.

About conspiracy theories

One of the most interesting aspects of any crisis is to observe how people react to it. How does the media report on it? How do politicians act? What does your company do? What are the actions of your business partners, competitors, and colleagues?

For me personally, it is most interesting to observe how friends and connections on social media react. When it’s not about business, but about personal opinions, character, and values.

architectural photography of yellow and brown house

Photo by Tsvetoslav Hristov on Pexels.com

Conspiracy theories on the rise

It’s hard not to notice the surging amount of conspiracy theories. Whether it’s a try to demonizing Bill Gates, or a push against China, the internet and social media are full of it. And while I wouldn’t expect anything else from Facebook (I stopped using Facebook almost 1,5 years ago), I am very surprised to see the same narratives even on a professional network such as LinkedIn.

Well, in the end, we are all just people. But let me tell you that as professionals who trust each other in business matters, it can really profoundly disturb a relationship knowing that the person I am dealing with is eager to spread misinformation, fake news, racism, and/or propaganda. In fact, this is a reason for me to seize doing business with such a person.

Controlling your emotions

As professionals and as investors, a major rule of thumb is to control our emotions. No matter what we personally think about something, throughout our careers we train to learn to follow data, to collect information from other people who are actual professionals in those fields, and then to draw conclusions based on the information we have at hand.

We can, of course, express our opinions, worries, or reasons which lead us to believe something to be otherwise. But this needs to be presented as such. And it’s needless to say that propaganda or racism is a non-negotiable and resounding no-go in any case.

About China

So today, let me address a few points that I read about in recent days. This is to offer some additional perspective on the blame China receives:

  • Wet markets. People are now eager to blame everything on the wet markets in China. Fair enough, according to the current data the virus came from there. But how certain are we that a similar outbreak could not occur in a wet market in Vietnam, Thailand or Cambodia? And how about slaughterhouses in the USA, or mass animal farming and chicken breeding? How about the hygienic conditions across India? There are so many potential breeding grounds for a virus, it’s mindboggling.
    My point here is that instead of generally blaming wet markets in China, we should rather try to identify general root issues and how to address those across the globe. But we can only do it in coordination and exchange with other nations. Our “artificial” borders matter nothing for a virus or any other natural disaster for that matter.
  • China is lying to the world. It might be. Whether it’s deliberate lies or creative interpretations of facts and data, we know that we have to be very careful with any information that we receive. But instead of pointing fingers, the USA and Europe should use the tools at hand to push for more data, to evaluate it, and to coordinate a response. Amazingly enough, we do have a real tool and task force just for that: The World Health Organization, or WHO.
  • The WHO is being controlled by the Chinese. There might be some influence. More, or less. We don’t know at this point. So we shouldn’t declare it as a fact and we shouldn’t reduce the funding to this organization just now. However, every participating and paying country has every right to analyze and evaluate an organization they pay money to.
    But what would be the best way to evaluate the WHO? I would argue that it’s probably not by setting up investigative committees and withholding funding. Instead, it might be smarter to send our own trusted professionals to support the work. By actively engaging in discussions and exchange of information, by ensuring that resources and measures are being directed to where they are being needed, this approach would quickly debunk any conspiracy theories, it would eradicate the finger-pointing and blaming, and it would result in a globally coordinated effort. Unity. Something that is urgently needed to fight a pandemic.
  • China will use the crisis to buy foreign companies. This idea is highly unlikely. First of all, China needs to do its own stimulus efforts to support the economy. Secondly, China needs to prepare itself for the upcoming economic disaster. What do I mean by that?
    Chinas growth this year is estimated to be less than 2%. The last time it was that low was after the cultural revolution in 1977. And this is just the current estimation. The real impact of the crisis and what will follow after that is difficult to predict. But we are seeing first sentiments and actions from entities worldwide already taking shape. Companies from major economies around the globe start moving production facilities out of China or are planning to do so in the foreseeable future. China is being sued by several states in the US for damages. Diplomatic ties are strained. Hostile takeovers of companies in the US or in Europe during a pandemic would only risk an irreversible lost of trust and global backlash which I doubt the country can afford.

I am probably the last person to put China into a positive spotlight. After living and working there for a year I had really enough and I don’t see myself ever going back there. Vacations – maybe. But spreading conspiracy theories and racism based on some shady propaganda and without thinking the arguments through… we are better than that.